Election 2018 this is very clear now that the chances of PML-N as a whole are very difficult. There are chances that 2018 assembly would be mixed, no party would be able to take the majority, but PTI has only chance to get maximum seats if the group of south Punjab belonging from Bahawalpur, Multan and DG Khan will able to perform under PTI because it contains 46 NA seats. Right now if we take PTI position in south Punjab, they are in such a strong position last time from Rahim Yar Khan, Bahawalnagar and Bahawalpur district their candidates are not event up to 2nd,3rd place in most constituencies. They are in the position now to win these districts after joining of Electables.
In Central Punjab and North Punjab, the election will be 1 vs 1 as the trend of Punjab between two party election i.e PTI Vs PML-N. There is some reservation for both party workers and other factors reported in North Punjab. Like PTI gave both Tickets from Attock to Major Tahir Sadiq, two tickets to Ghulam Sarwar Khan and Two Tickets reserved for Sheikh Rasheed. Yet PML-N has not confirmed all the tickets but up till now they had given tickets to strong candidates but at the same time Ch Nisar Ali Khan factor will definitely damage PML-N vote bank. Although this damage in now confined to 2 constituencies only.
Election 2018 Central Punjab was always considered as a stronghold of PML-N and there is no doubt that they are still strong enough but after joining of some strong electable from Central Punjab like Dr.Firdous Ashiq Awan, Mian Muhammad Rasheed, Rana Nazir Ahmed Khan, Ali Asghar Manda and many more at the same time PTI has focused on Lahore, somehow they managed to gain support from Kashmiri Baradari of Gujranwala this time. Now the competition will be tough for both parties but there are still some save constituencies of PML-N.
In 2013 PML-N did sweep in WEST Punjab but this time position is entirely different PTI has given tickets to strong electable and mostly are winning candidates in last general election or lost by a very small margin. PTI has no candidates for West Punjab especially if we talk about Jhang district this time they have very strong candidates, in Chinot PTI has given the ticket to Ghulam Mohammad Lali and Zulfiqar Ali Shah. unfortunately, PPP has no party position in Punjab for Election 2018
Secondly, from Baluchistan, the recent government representative would alliance with PTI and they will able to get maximum seats from Baluchistan and most probably mengal group also make the alliance with PTI. In Baluchistan, it has always between their local sardar’s.
In urban Sindh, it will between MQM vs PSP vs PTI, but no matter who wins the one who will get seats from urban will be joining Federal government most probably they will easily join PTI if they are in the position to form the government in National assembly. The voter of Urban Sindh always vote for the party not electable it has been seen in past but this time candidate has been shuffled and PPP can give small surprise as well because votes of major urban parties are going to be divided.
Rural Sindh PPP is dominating and will dominate in upcoming elections as well, recently Shirazi brothers from thatha also joined PPP and they are contesting election from both seats of Thatha, but 10 party alliance against PPP can damage their number in national assembly as PTI has not given tickets in all Seats of Sindh so they have silent settlement with 10 part alliance and in near future they can form government against PPP. Shah Mehmood Qureshi has very strong hold in 2 constituencies in Sindh i.e Umerkot, Tharparkar he lost both seats with very few margins, Jatoi family in Dadu, Mirza family from Badeen, PML-F and many other strong individuals can give tough time to PPP.
In KPK it will be PTI Vs MMA, In hazra region PTI Vs PML-N, but PTI has the clear edge on other parties in KPK. There are many other parties Sher Pao Group, ANP and PPP who will be giving tough time in their stronghold regions but as a whole, there is no party who can contest election against PTI in KPK. After the merger of FATA, in addition of 7 seats because of recent census KPK will play the key role in Election 2018 with 50 NA seats.
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